EU regulations require fleet average CO2 emissions for passenger cars to be 93.6 g/km in 2025 and 49.5 g/km in 2030.

Based on data from the European Environment Agency (EEA), compiling the 2023 CO2 emissions results and powertrain mix of the major passenger car manufacturers and estimating how far each OEM has deviated from the targets, VW and Ford are particularly challenging to achieve their 2025 targets. Both companies could be fined billions of euros.

The 2030 target will be tough for all OEMs: they need to have a BEV ratio of at least 30-40% in 2030, but the expansion of the BEV market is diminishing.

To reduce the BEV ratio needed to achieve the regulation, the emissions of engine vehicles must be reduced, either by increasing PHEVs or by MHEVs and other vehicles. Although car manufacturers have been converting to BEVs on the assumption that engines will be phased out by 2035, they have been forced into the ironic situation of having to spend money on engine vehicles as well in order to meet EU regulations in 2025 and 2030.