The Eurodollar is plunging below the October 2023 low of 1.0448 as European PMIs deteriorate. It is somewhat panicky at 1.0332 low with various options triggers.

It was no secret that European fundamentals were poor, but for all that, the Eurodollar’s decline was slow. A break below the range could accelerate the decline.
The near-term target is 1.00, and possibly even 0.9535, the 2022 low, could be in sight.

The U.S. admitted to attacking Russian territory with ATACMS, and Russia changed its nuclear doctrine to make it easier to use nuclear weapons, causing a furious risk-off momentarily, but the belief that the war situation will not change dramatically even if ATACMS is used became prevailing, and the yen and US Treasuries bought on risk-off sold back down. The dollar weakened by more than ¥2 from its low.

Although it is difficult to predict future developments, the U.S. government is on the verge of a new Trump administration after Biden’s departure, and the market may move a little bit at the end of the year, but at the end of the year, the market is likely to be not so far outside the range. U.S. investors appear to be shifting their speculative focus from stocks to Bitcoin. Depending on how NVIDIA’s stock price moves, Japanese IT-related stocks may also be affected in the future.

At the Paris Europlus Financial Forum 2024 held in Tokyo, Governor Ueda said, “We will take exchange rate fluctuations into account when formulating our economic and inflation forecasts, including factors related to exchange rate fluctuations occurring at that time. He also suggested that the December meeting will be live, saying that it is “impossible to predict.
No decision has been made as to whether it will be in December or next January, but the policy of raising interest rates appears to be clear. If the yen weakens excessively, it is likely to go ahead with a December rate hike. If the yen does not weaken, then January next year.