As the campaign enters its final weeks, polls show that support for both candidates remains close, with 15% of voters still undecided on who to vote for. Vice President Kamala Harris has strong support from female voters, while former President Donald Trump has support from male voters. Immigration is the biggest issue in this election, and there are significant differences in the policies of the two candidates. Media appearances are scheduled to continue this week, and financial markets continue to be strained by uncertainty over the outcome of the election.

The VIX (fear index) rose sharply toward the end of last week, breaking the strong uptrend that had been continuing in the U.S. equity markets, which looked noticeably unstable at the end of the week. Increased uncertainty due to the close presidential race has shifted investor sentiment and increased uncertainty about the market outlook. The geopolitical situation also played a role, with Israel’s retaliation against Iran raising fears of a larger conflict and spurring the VIX higher. While the technicals are showing a sideways move, risks are increasing as the elections approach. The optimal strategy is to take advantage of the current market conditions by entering a buy position near 19.50 or when the resistance at 21.50 is breached.

Anticipated Impact of a Harris Victory: A Harris victory could increase uncertainty in the markets and cause the VIX (fear index) to rise as investors anticipate regulatory changes and tighter fiscal policy. The shift to a more government-centric economic policy may further increase volatility as markets adjust to the new policies.

Predicted Impact of a Trump Victory: A Trump victory could lead to lower volatility as he is expected to continue his business-friendly and market-stabilizing policies. However, short-term rises in the VIX (fear index) are still possible, especially as a reaction to policy decisions on trade and international issues.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as investors sold off due to election uncertainty and rising long-term U.S. interest rates. With U.S. stocks still up more than 10% since the beginning of the year, profit-taking is a natural trend. The Nikkei 225 also fell despite the dollar’s rise above 150, with resistance around 40,000 remaining strong, while uncertainty over the October 27 Japanese election is also impacting the market.

The charts of both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nikkei 225 show a downtrend, and further declines are expected as uncertainty continues to rise. The Dow is somewhat oversold in the short term, so waiting for a rally to the $42,500 area or a break below $42,000 to sell would be a promising strategy for the week. The Nikkei 225 is not as bearish as the Dow, but resistance around 38,700 yen is likely to limit upside, and selling opportunities are likely to continue. Note that the Bank of Japan meets on Wednesday and Thursday, which could bring volatility to the Nikkei 225 and may create trading opportunities.

Harris’ victory may bring temporary uncertainty to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and cause short-term market volatility as she may focus on fiscal stimulus and regulatory reform. While US-Japan relations may stabilize under her leadership, the Nikkei 225 could come under pressure if these policy changes weaken the Dow, especially if global markets react negatively.

A Trump victory could boost the uptrend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average due to his pro-business policies such as tax cuts and deregulation. However, this could be a negative factor for the Nikkei 225. Trump may push for a stronger yen to promote U.S. exports, which could hurt Japanese exporters and put downward pressure on the index.

Upcoming Political and Economic Events:

Volatility is expected to increase as the results of the Japanese election and the impact of Israel’s attack on Iran ripple through the markets. It should also be noted that the London market opens one hour later than Japan time due to the end of daylight saving time in the U.K. on Sunday, October 27. As for economic indicators, U.S. GDP data will be released on Wednesday, and U.S. employment data and the ISM manufacturing index will be released on Friday, so particularly active market activity is expected. In addition, the Bank of Japan’s meetings scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday should be closely watched for statements on monetary policy. As we enter the final week of the U.S. presidential election, volatility is expected to increase as traders adjust their positions ahead of the election.

With increased geopolitical risk, the release of important U.S. economic data, and a Bank of Japan meeting to set monetary policy scheduled for last week, many trading opportunities are expected in each market. on the VIX, buy entries will be effective when the market breaks through the 19.50 area and 21.50 area, as election risk increases. Positions for further upside potential are valid. Both the Dow and Nikkei 225 charts are pointing lower, with further declines expected as uncertainty rises. In the Dow, selling near or below $42,500 is promising, while short-term selling is favorable in the Nikkei 225 as resistance is expected near ¥38,700. However, there is a significant downside risk to the Nikkei if Japan unexpectedly raises interest rates; with WTI regaining $70, looking for buying opportunities between $70 and $70.50 or on a break above $72.75 would be the best strategy amid continued geopolitical risk. Bitcoin is showing sideways or downward movement after failing to break through $69,000 last week, and selling near $68,000 or buying near $65,000 if prices fall could be a promising strategy.