On Friday, the U.S. stock market saw the much-requested NVIDIA plunge, and other AI-related stocks were also sold off, with the SOX index falling sharply by more than 6%.
Naturally, Japanese stocks were also sold off, falling 1100 yen. 38,000-4,000 range had been continuing, so the range will probably be around 34,000-38,000.

In Europe, the CDU/CSU came out on top in the German general election, the right-wing AfD came out second, and the SPD sank to third. And since the CDU/CSU and the SPD together hold 52% of the seats, a grand coalition of the two major parties is almost certain to be realized. Markets were buoyed by this result, with German stocks up about 1% and the Eurodollar rising in Asian hours. However, the euro sold off in European hours on the prospect of new tariffs being imposed by the Trump administration.

The rebound was an end-of-month adjustment, and now that the German elections are over, the focus will again be on Ukraine-related issues and the tariffs and other policies that the Trump administration will launch. The situation in Ukraine is mixed, but ultimately Ukraine will have to accept a ceasefire agreement. If this happens, energy prices will fall, thus ending the era of cost-push inflation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

NVIDIA’s earnings, which are the focus of attention, were strong, slightly better than analyst expectations. However, there were no surprises, so the results were flat at the time of the announcement. The dollar sold off early in the morning but stayed around 148.75 yen. The previous low of 148.65 yen was tested several times, but has been very stubborn so far. Will the pair rebound after three failed attempts? Will it rebound after three failed attempts? Or will it still be a selling area around 150 yen and test 148.65 yen?

The dollar attacked the stronger yen, but bounced back at 149.10 yen and pushed back to the 150-yen level. The fact that the yen has not strengthened despite all these factors suggests that the yen is likely to reverse soon.
Since funds are long the yen, we should be careful about the yen’s depreciation.