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Nikkei Plunges ¥2,600 in Shock Mutual Tariffs; China Retaliates with Tariffs
Mutual tariffs were announced at 5:00 a.m. on April 3, and the tariff rates were determined to be much higher than many had expected.
Perhaps it may be possible to lower tariff rates in the future through negotiations, but Japan’s 24% tariff rate is high. Many other countries such as Taiwan, Switzerland, and South Korea have tariff rates that exceed Japan’s at 32%, 31%, and 25%.
Presumably, the ratio is determined by dividing the trade surplus with the U.S. by the total volume of exports. This is a rather rough way of determining tariff rates, and it seems that no elaborate simulation has been done to determine the actual impact on the economy. This means that one day the Trump administration will cause a major accident.
The Nikkei 225 tumbled -2,200 yen following the decline in U.S. stocks. The background is that U.S. consumers fear that stagflation is approaching due to tariffs. The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index’s 1-year and 5-year ahead inflation rates jumped.
China announced that it would impose 34% retaliatory tariffs on all imports from the U.S., and risk-off sent the dollar down to around ¥144.56 against the yen. However, the market was quick to develop and has already rebounded to around 145.30 yen before the release of the employment data.
The impact of the U.S. tariffs has been significant, and Japan’s rate hike path seems to have already faltered, with Japan’s long-term interest rate now below 1.2%. The U.S. has begun to factor in five rate cuts before the end of the year. Even if the U.S. jobs report is good, there is a growing realization that the economy will eventually deteriorate, and the dollar/yen will fall if the number is bad, and will be a selling point even if it rebounds on a good number.
At this point, the U.S. is not in a recession, and tariffs will balance the U.S.-Japan trade balance, which is a factor in the dollar’s strength against the yen.
Since the market has moved quite a bit, there may be some comments in the direction of calming down. At that time, positions in the dollar/yen and other currencies may rebound due to short-covering, so it may be time to take some profit taking.