The new U.S. Trump administration will take office on January 20.

In 2025, with the inauguration of the second Trump administration, which will uphold the “America First” policy, the momentum for international cooperation will recede, and there are fears of increased fragmentation and uncertainty over global issues such as trade, defense, and climate change. In Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, there are concerns about intensifying conflicts between “Europe vs. the U.S.” and “Europe vs. China,” a sluggish German economy, instability in the internal politics of European countries, and the expansion of conflicts in the Middle East and Africa. In terms of business, however, it is necessary to view this as both a risk and an opportunity.

We have estimated the impact on the industry of the imposition of additional tariffs on automobile imports that Donald Trump has been referring to since before he took office: the average import value per vehicle (new cars and small cars) during January-September 2024 is approximately $30,000, and a 10% additional tariff rate would add approximately $3,000. If an additional 10% tariff rate is imposed, approximately $3,000 would be added to the average import value. This is a simple calculation, but it means that this additional amount will be passed on to the selling price of imported automobiles in the U.S.

In the U.S., vehicle prices are already on an upward trend due to the addition of ADAS functions and other factors, and higher interest rates are raising the bar for purchasing vehicles, which is beginning to affect demand in the new vehicle market. Under these circumstances, further price increases due to the imposition of additional tariffs will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the new vehicle market. The U.S. auto industry has long been building a production system that actively utilizes the free trade zones of Canada and Mexico, but President Trump has mentioned the possibility of imposing tariffs on imports from both countries as well, which is expected to disrupt supply chains and other aspects of the auto industry.