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Trump 25% tariffs on imported automobiles in effect, Tokyo Metropolitan CPI higher than expected.
The long-anticipated Trump tariffs have been announced, and the 25% tariff will likely force automakers to take action.
The theory is that the imposition of tariffs will reduce the volume of exports and thus reduce the trade surplus, which will lead to a weaker currency.
The Tokyo CPI came in at 2.4%, above the 2.2% forecast, and there was a slight move in the direction of a stronger yen, but basically the market was quiet at the end of the month and ahead of the April 2 mutual tariff announcement.
Until now, the BOJ had to make policy decisions based solely on the Japanese economy, but with the imposition of larger-than-expected tariffs on auto exports to the US and reciprocal tariffs, the BOJ will have no choice but to change its assessment of the economy.
If a trade war is imminent, the BOJ will not be able to move if the global economy is to suffer a major setback. Since U.S. interest rates are likely to remain high, the dollar may turn into a market where push-backs dominate.
Initially, “risk-off” led to yen buying, but the dollar/yen reversed course as we entered Europe. If the dollar appreciates against the yen and the yen weakens theorically, the dollar-yen may be strong.