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UK sovereign debt crisis
The British 30-year bond sold off intermittently, reaching 5.44%. There was some buying back over the weekend, but the pound dollar fell to around 1.2240.
The current sovereign debt crisis may be the market’s warning that the Starmer administration is overspending. If so, taking steps to cut spending should change the situation. It has not been often that government bonds are sold off when the market decides that there is too much bond issuance, but the U.K. may have started that firestorm. The main culprit is the Trump administration. If the Trump administration moves to expand spending, interest rates could continue to rise further.
The U.S. jobs report released last Friday showed strong numbers at 223,000 and 4.1%, respectively, while market expectations were for a 160,000 job gain and a 4.2% unemployment rate. This led to risk-on and the dollar was bought. The dollar also broke above the upper end of its holding range on Thursday; before Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the dollar is likely to be bought wherever it falls.
In Japan, the yen strengthened when Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa said, “I think the BOJ will think about various things in the future, such as having a free hand in policy if there is room to cut interest rates in the event of an emergency,” which triggered a shift in resistance and support. The dollar/yen is basically on firm ground and the U.S. economy is strong, so the dollar uptrend will probably continue basically.