On the first day of 2025, the euro dollar triggered a stop loss around 1.0340 and fell sharply, softening to around 1.0222. The pound dollar also plunged to around 1.2352 from a high of 1.2540.

Caixin China’s December manufacturing PMI, released on January 2, came in at 50.5, below market expectations of 51.7 and the previous reading of 51.5. The Shanghai Stock Index fell 2.66% to 3,262 today and Hong Kong dropped 2.18% due to a slowdown in new orders growth and a sense of urgency over the tariff policies of the incoming U.S. administration of President Trump.

The Trump administration has brought all sorts of disasters to Europe, including higher tariffs, higher defense spending, higher natural gas prices, and a slowdown in exports to China. It is inevitable that the Eurodollar will soften. Eurodollar and Pounddollar are too oversold in the short term, but after price and time adjustments, we will test the downside of the Eurodollar again.

The dollar appears to have had a fair amount of buying in the mid-156 yen range and has been pushed back to the 157 yen level as Londoners enter the market. The market has been in a range with the lower limit around 156 yen and the upper limit around 158 yen. Overseas investors are no longer aggressively buying higher prices, but there is a strong appetite for buying at the pushpoints. Trading with an awareness of the range is essential.